Issued Wed 2026-09-16 02:21 MDT (replay, models from the ClickHouse archive) · cln_precip_r3_20261024
In hand: Gauge nothing in hand · HRRR wrfsubh 2026-09-16 07Z, f01–f18 · GFS 2026-09-16 00Z · GEFS 2026-09-16 00Z · AIFS single 2026-09-16 00Z
Model by hour: C3.1 × 17
| Hour to (MDT) | Model | p | If wet | Called, p ≥ 0.5 | Called, p ≥ 0.4 | Called, p ≥ 0.3 | Expected | Likely, p ≥ 0.5 | Phantom, p < 0.5 | Gauge | HRRR wrfsubh lead | HRRR wrfsubh cycles | Gauge lead | GFS lead | GEFS lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:00 | C3.1 | 0.89 | 0.081 | 0.081 | 0.081 | 0.081 | 0.072 | 0.072 | 0.000 | – | 2 | 17 | – | 9 | 9 |
| 09-16 04:00 | C3.1 | 0.95 | 0.105 | 0.105 | 0.105 | 0.105 | 0.099 | 0.099 | 0.000 | – | 3 | 16 | – | 10 | 10 |
| 09-16 05:00 | C3.1 | 0.84 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.000 | – | 4 | 15 | – | 11 | 11 |
| 09-16 06:00 | C3.1 | 0.87 | 0.065 | 0.065 | 0.065 | 0.065 | 0.056 | 0.056 | 0.000 | – | 5 | 14 | – | 12 | 12 |
| 09-16 07:00 | C3.1 | 0.88 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.000 | – | 6 | 13 | – | 13 | 13 |
| 09-16 08:00 | C3.1 | 0.89 | 0.087 | 0.087 | 0.087 | 0.087 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.000 | – | 7 | 12 | – | 14 | 14 |
| 09-16 09:00 | C3.1 | 0.83 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.000 | – | 8 | 11 | – | 15 | 15 |
| 09-16 10:00 | C3.1 | 0.40 | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.027 | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.011 | – | 9 | 10 | – | 16 | 16 |
| 09-16 11:00 | C3.1 | 0.35 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.009 | – | 10 | 9 | – | 17 | 17 |
| 09-16 12:00 | C3.1 | 0.33 | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.010 | – | 11 | 8 | – | 18 | 18 |
| 09-16 13:00 | C3.1 | 0.01 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | – | 12 | 7 | – | 19 | 19 |
| 09-16 14:00 | C3.1 | 0.01 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | – | 13 | 6 | – | 20 | 20 |
| 09-16 15:00 | C3.1 | 0.01 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | – | 14 | 5 | – | 21 | 21 |
| 09-16 16:00 | C3.1 | 0.03 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | – | 15 | 4 | – | 22 | 22 |
| 09-16 17:00 | C3.1 | 0.03 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | – | 16 | 3 | – | 23 | 23 |
| 09-16 18:00 | C3.1 | 0.03 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | – | 17 | 2 | – | 24 | 24 |
| 09-16 19:00 | C3.1 | 0.15 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.004 | – | 18 | 1 | – | 25 | 25 |
| Total | 0.515 | 0.542 | 0.598 | 0.492 | 0.456 | 0.036 | 0.00 |
Totals from the start of the issue hour, each 15-minute step included at its end; inches of water. Expected (p × the amount if wet) is the forecast total. Its areas split it into likely, from hours with p ≥ 0.5, and phantom, from hours with p < 0.5. Called is each hour as wet, max(amount if wet, 0.01) in, when p is at or above the cut-off, or dry, 0: what an hourly view shows. Its sum is not a total forecast: it counts each called hour as certain and the rest as 0, and in a storm of confident hours it runs above expected. The lower chart has each hour on its own: called at 0.5 against expected, and in replays the gauge. The gauge counts only the hours the forecast has. HRRR wrfsubh runs: the 10 newest in hand, oldest lightest, each the mean of its 4 points. Each MOS hour is split into 15 minutes as the newest HRRR wrfsubh cycle in hand splits it, evenly without one. Each source lists its runs or readings in hand at the issue time that the model would still use, runs by their UTC start and readings by their local time; picking an older one leaves out the newer ones, and changing the issue time sets every source back to its newest. In a replay, the newest in hand is the newest run or reading at least this long before the issue time: the gauge 15 minutes, HRRR wrfsubh 50 minutes (the whole cycle), GFS 5 hours, GEFS 6 hours and AIFS single 5 hours. Built in 0.82 s.