Issued Tue 2026-09-15 19:21 MDT · cln_precip_r3_20261024
Model by hour: C3.1 × 17
| Hour to (MDT) | Model | p | If wet | Called, p ≥ 0.5 | Called, p ≥ 0.4 | Called, p ≥ 0.3 | Expected | Likely, p ≥ 0.5 | Phantom, p < 0.5 | Gauge | HRRR wrfsubh lead | HRRR wrfsubh cycles | Gauge lead | GFS lead | GEFS lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:00 | C3.1 | 0.23 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.005 | – | 2 | 17 | – | 8 | 8 |
| 09-15 21:00 | C3.1 | 0.38 | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.010 | – | 3 | 16 | – | 9 | 9 |
| 09-15 22:00 | C3.1 | 0.50 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.000 | – | 4 | 15 | – | 10 | 10 |
| 09-15 23:00 | C3.1 | 0.38 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.013 | – | 5 | 14 | – | 11 | 11 |
| 09-16 00:00 | C3.1 | 0.39 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.013 | – | 6 | 13 | – | 12 | 12 |
| 09-16 01:00 | C3.1 | 0.43 | 0.031 | 0.000 | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.013 | – | 7 | 12 | – | 13 | 13 |
| 09-16 02:00 | C3.1 | 0.75 | 0.048 | 0.048 | 0.048 | 0.048 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.000 | – | 8 | 11 | – | 14 | 14 |
| 09-16 03:00 | C3.1 | 0.82 | 0.093 | 0.093 | 0.093 | 0.093 | 0.076 | 0.076 | 0.000 | – | 9 | 10 | – | 15 | 15 |
| 09-16 04:00 | C3.1 | 0.85 | 0.109 | 0.109 | 0.109 | 0.109 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.000 | – | 10 | 9 | – | 16 | 16 |
| 09-16 05:00 | C3.1 | 0.75 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.052 | 0.052 | 0.000 | – | 11 | 8 | – | 17 | 17 |
| 09-16 06:00 | C3.1 | 0.76 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 0.000 | – | 12 | 7 | – | 18 | 18 |
| 09-16 07:00 | C3.1 | 0.74 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 0.047 | 0.047 | 0.000 | – | 13 | 6 | – | 19 | 19 |
| 09-16 08:00 | C3.1 | 0.75 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.000 | – | 14 | 5 | – | 20 | 20 |
| 09-16 09:00 | C3.1 | 0.80 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.000 | – | 15 | 4 | – | 21 | 21 |
| 09-16 10:00 | C3.1 | 0.51 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.026 | 0.026 | 0.000 | – | 16 | 3 | – | 22 | 22 |
| 09-16 11:00 | C3.1 | 0.49 | 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.020 | – | 17 | 2 | – | 23 | 23 |
| 09-16 12:00 | C3.1 | 0.35 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.022 | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.008 | – | 18 | 1 | – | 24 | 24 |
| Total | 0.649 | 0.721 | 0.837 | 0.570 | 0.487 | 0.082 | 0.00 |
Totals from the start of the issue hour, each 15-minute step included at its end; inches of water. Expected (p × the amount if wet) is the forecast total. Its areas split it into likely, from hours with p ≥ 0.5, and phantom, from hours with p < 0.5. Called is each hour as wet, max(amount if wet, 0.01) in, when p is at or above the cut-off, or dry, 0: what an hourly view shows. Its sum is not a total forecast: it counts each called hour as certain and the rest as 0, and in a storm of confident hours it runs above expected. The lower chart has each hour on its own: called at 0.5 against expected, and in replays the gauge. The gauge counts only the hours the forecast has. HRRR wrfsubh runs: up to 10 cycles in hand, up to the one picked, lighter the earlier, each the mean of its 4 points. Each MOS hour is split into 15 minutes as the HRRR wrfsubh cycle with the shortest lead time to it splits it, evenly without one. Each source lists its runs or readings in hand at the issue time that the model would still use, runs by their UTC start and readings by their local time; the forecast uses the source up to the one picked, and changing the issue time sets every source back to its default. In a replay, a source's default is its last run or reading at least this long before the issue time: the gauge 15 minutes, HRRR wrfsubh 50 minutes (the whole cycle), GFS 5 hours, GEFS 6 hours and AIFS single 5 hours. Built in 0.65 s.